The emergence of generative artificial intelligence (AI) is poised to significantly boost economic progress and transform various sectors. Recognized as a ‘general-purpose technology,’ generative AI holds the promise of reshaping economies and societies for the better.
Research suggests that in the U.S. alone, nearly 80% of jobs could witness a doubling in the speed of task completion for at least 10% of their duties, without sacrificing quality, thanks to generative AI.
Unlike past general-purpose technologies such as the steam engine and electrification, which unfolded their impacts over extended periods, generative AI is expected to make its mark far more swiftly. This rapid adoption is facilitated by the internet’s broad reach and the technology’s user-friendly natural language interfaces.
The productivity enhancements already evident from generative AI are set to grow and proliferate as additional complementary innovations are developed. This synergy will likely lead to an uptick in overall productivity and an acceleration of economic expansion.
While generative AI is bound to alter the demand for certain skills, diminishing some while amplifying others, it is also expected to give rise to entirely new skill sets. Despite concerns about widespread technological unemployment, history suggests that such transformative technologies typically generate robust labor demand, albeit in new fields. For instance, a significant portion of employment growth in the U.S. since the 1940s has originated in novel occupations that did not previously exist.
Adapting to the brisk pace of change spurred by generative AI will necessitate quick and efficient reskilling initiatives. Interestingly, the technology itself could be a powerful ally in these efforts, given its capacity to facilitate learning and its role in democratizing access to knowledge. This could be especially beneficial for entry-level workers, potentially easing wage disparities.
As with earlier general-purpose technologies, the rise of generative AI is likely to shuffle the deck regarding industry leadership among companies and nations. Its influence is expected to be far-reaching and profound.
